TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR)

1. Introduction/Background

District Kohistan region, located in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is among the most underdeveloped and vulnerable regions in Pakistan. According to the UNDP Pakistan Human Development Index Report 2017, Kohistan falls within the category of “Very Low Human Development,” with one of the lowest HDI scores in the province. The districts in Kohistan region, experiences severe multidimensional poverty, low literacy, limited access to basic services, and persistent socio-economic exclusion, particularly among women and marginalized households.

Geographically, Kohistan region is a remote and mountainous area divided into Upper Kohistan, Lower Kohistan and Kolai Palas, characterized by difficult terrain, scattered settlements, and weak infrastructure connectivity. Limited road access and frequent disruptions due to landslides and flash floods constrain service delivery and market access, further isolating communities. The districts of Kohistan region have poor education and health indicators, low female literacy, high maternal and child health risks, inadequate sanitation coverage, and limited access to safe drinking water.

Livelihoods in Kohistan region are primarily based on small-scale agriculture, livestock rearing, forest resources, and seasonal labor. However, agricultural productivity remains low due to limited arable land, traditional farming practices, poor market linkages, and inadequate technical support. Livestock ownership is generally small-scale and contributes minimally to household income. Women, despite their significant contribution to household and agricultural labor, have very limited access to education, mobility, income generation opportunities, and decision-making spaces due to prevailing socio-cultural norms.

Kohistan region is highly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate-related shocks. The districts of this region are prone to earthquakes, flash floods, landslides, and extreme weather events. Major disasters, including the 2005 earthquake and the 2010 and 2022 floods, caused extensive damage to lives, infrastructure, livelihoods, and productive assets. Environmental degradation, illegal deforestation, unsustainable mining practices, and changing climatic patterns have further increased disaster risk and environmental fragility in the area. Studies indicate rising temperatures, decreasing rainfall, and increasing climate variability, all of which have negatively affected agriculture, water availability, and livelihood security.

These intersecting challenges of poverty, disaster vulnerability, environmental degradation, gender inequality, and weak livelihood systems have resulted in low resilience among communities in Kohistan, particularly among poor and landless households, women, and other vulnerable groups.

In response to these challenges, Pak Mission Society, with support from Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development and Humedica International implemented the project “Strengthening Resilience of vulnerable rural groups in Lower Kohistan und Kollai Pallas, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa” in selected villages of Districts Pattan (Lower Kohistan) and Kolai Pallas in Kohistan region. The project aimed to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable rural communities through an integrated approach combining disaster risk reduction, climate adaptation, livelihood improvement, and institutional capacity building.

The final evaluation is intended to provide an independent assessment of the project’s relevance, effectiveness, impact, efficiency, coherence, and sustainability. It will assess the extent to which the project achieved its intended objectives, identify key lessons learned, document good practices and challenges, and generate recommendations to inform future programming in Kohistan and similar contexts.

Description of the Project

Humedica and Pak Mission Society implemented a thirty-seven months project initially, titled “Strengthening Resilience of Vulnerable Rural Groups in Lower Kohistan and Kolai Pallas, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa”, funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and Humedica International. The project was implemented from April 2023 to April 2026, with a No-Cost Extension (NCE) up to June 30, 2026.

During project implementation, a formal amendment was approved to utilize savings generated primarily through exchange rate gains under the Kohistan project budget. In consultation with the donor, these savings were reallocated to increase the targets of selected project activities based on emerging needs and priorities identified in the target villages. The amendment was intended to maximize project reach and enhance the overall effectiveness of the intervention without changing the project’s core objectives or implementation approach. Evaluators are expected to take this approved amendment into account when assessing project performance, achievement against targets, and overall efficiency of resource utilization.

The project targets 60 villages located in Union Councils Dubair and Bankad in Lower Kohistan (Pattan District) and Batera, Shalkanabad, and Harran in Kolai Pallas District. The selection of target villages was carried out in close coordination with the District Disaster Management Office (DDMO), based on criteria including level of vulnerability, availability of alternative livelihood opportunities, infrastructure condition, exposure to disaster risks, presence of other development actors, accessibility, and the willingness of communities to participate. Community willingness was further verified through consultations with village representatives. The total population covered under the project is 30,949 individuals from 3,913 households across 60 targeted villages.

The project was designed around an integrated resilience approach combining disaster risk reduction, climate-resilient livelihoods, and community capacity building. It aimed to strengthen the capacity of vulnerable groups, particularly women, youth, small farmers, and landless households.

The project supported the formation and strengthening of Village Development Committees (VDCs) and community-level disaster management structures through training, planning exercises, and provision of basic emergency equipment. Strong emphasis was placed on disaster risk reduction and preparedness through hazard, capacity and vulnerability assessments, development of village disaster management plans, establishment of early warning systems, and first aid training in both communities and schools. Community Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) were established and trained to strengthen local first response capacity. The project also included small-scale structural and ecosystem-based mitigation measures such as protection walls and bio-engineering interventions in identified high-risk areas to reduce exposure to floods and landslides.

The project promoted climate-resilient and improved agricultural practices through training on crop diversification, pest and disease management, irrigation efficiency, and orchard development, supported by technical guidance on grafting and plantation activities. Livelihood diversification was strengthened through vocational and skills development training for men and women in trades such as masonry, electrical work, tailoring, food processing, and home-based income generation activities for women. These trainings were complemented by the provision of tool kits to support income generation and self-employment after completion of training.

Further, the project supported environmental improvement and awareness through tree plantation drives and orchard establishment, contributing to sustainable natural resource management. Women’s economic inclusion was strengthened through skill development initiatives and the establishment of a display centre in Islamabad to support marketing of handicraft products and improve access to markets. These interventions were complemented by capacity building of local institutions, coordination mechanisms, and district-level disaster management stakeholders to strengthen preparedness, coordination, and long-term resilience of vulnerable rural communities against disasters and climate-related risks.

Project outcome and outputs to be achieved are:

Project Outcome:

60 village communities in Kollai Pallas and Lower Kohistan districts are more resilient to disaster events and have achieved significant improvement in their livelihoods.

Indicators of outcome:

• · 70% of the target population surveyed (approximately 750 households in 30 villages) reported feeling safer from disaster risks and could name at least three local disaster management measures.
• · Disaster management plans are in place and shared with disaster management authorities in 60 target villages.
• · 70% of 50 agricultural training participants surveyed report using at least two improved farming methods. 65% of them report an increase in yield of at least 25% as a result.
• · 70% of craft training participants surveyed (62 out of 90 men) report generating significantly increased income from craft skills taught to them by the project.
• · 60% of surveyed female participants of craft training (54 out of 90 individuals) report generating over a significantly increased income from craft skills taught to them by the project.

Project Outputs

2. Purpose, Objectives and Use

The purpose of this evaluation is to provide an independent assessment of the project implemented in Kohistan against the indicators defined in the approved logframe. The evaluation will review overall project performance using the OECD DAC criteria, including relevance, efficiency, effectiveness, coherence, impact, and sustainability. It will specifically assess the extent to which the project achieved its intended results in strengthening community resilience in a highly vulnerable and disaster-prone context, including the functionality and usefulness of community-based systems and structures established or strengthened under the project such as Village Development Committees, Community Emergency Response Teams, disaster preparedness mechanisms, early warning systems, and village disaster management plans. It will also examine the effectiveness and durability of livelihood and resilience measures, including vocational training initiatives, improved agricultural practices, orchard development, and small-scale mitigation structures such as protection walls and bio-engineering interventions, as well as the role of institutional linkages and coordination mechanisms in supporting preparedness, response capacity, and the long-term sustainability of project outcomes.

The evaluation will focus on the following objectives:

• · To evaluate the project performance against the OECD/DAC criteria such as effectiveness, relevance, efficiency, impact and sustainability, with a priority on assessing the project expected results and outcomes.
• · To identify key lessons and potential practices for learning.
• · To assess the challenges, best practices and document the outcome for future processes.
• · Recommendations for similar future interventions as well as for new interventions in the targeted areas.

The findings of this evaluation are intended for multiple users. Project management and implementing partners will use the results to improve ongoing and future interventions, particularly in strengthening community resilience, livelihood support, and disaster preparedness in vulnerable areas. Donors and funding agencies will use the evidence on project performance, impact, and efficiency to support accountability and inform future funding decisions. Government authorities and local institutions will benefit from the findings by using them to strengthen planning and decision-making related to disaster risk management, climate adaptation, natural resource management, and community development. The target communities will also benefit through practical lessons and recommendations that can support improvements in livelihoods, living conditions, and overall resilience at village level.

The evaluation will review relevant initiatives and projects with similar objectives implemented in comparable contexts to provide broader reference points for analysis. It will also draw on the baseline study and midterm evaluation conducted under the current project to assess progress over time, measure changes against the initial situation, and understand how implementation has evolved in response to emerging needs in a highly disaster-prone environment. Particular attention will be given to the project’s responsiveness and adaptability to changing conditions, including increased disaster risk, climate-related pressures, and evolving community needs. The findings will support Humedica and the local partner Pak Mission Society in assessing project achievements, sustainability, and overall performance, as well as in identifying key lessons and strategic recommendations to strengthen future programming and improve the design of similar interventions in comparable contexts.

3. Scope of Work

The scope of the evaluation shall encompass

• · The achievements of the project against the set objectives, on outcome level
• · The status of the project against the work plan, on output level and activities level
• · The conceptual set up of the project, its feasibility and prospects of success
• · Vital lessons learned and best practices for future strategies and interventions
• · Recommendations for improving programme implementation and enhancing impact for any future interventions
• · The effectiveness of partnerships and coordination mechanisms.

3.1 EVALUATION QUESTIONS

The evaluation should, to the greatest extent possible, provide clear and evidence-based responses to the following research questions:

Relevance

• · Has the project been planned in a way enabling the assessment of achievements (project logic, indicators)?
• · Are the planned activities conducive to the achievement of outputs and outcomes?
• · Are assumptions and risks sufficiently pertinent?
• · To what extent is the project approach conducive to meaningful improvements of the target group’s situation?
• · To what extent did cultural norms have an influence on the project; to what extent was the project able to make use of them, and to minimize their negative influence?
• · To what extent can the project liaise with successful similar initiatives?

Efficiency

• · How well did the Programme complement other interventions in the area, including those by local government, other NGOs, and UN agencies?
• · How did the project deal with security concerns?

Effectiveness

• · Are the project’s achievements consistent with the project’s objectives (outcome and goal)? How has the project performed on impact level and output level?
• · How was access to marginalized groups ascertained, especially of women?

Impact

• · To what extent did the project foster or impede social cohesion in target communities?
• · To what extent have the income generation interventions contributed to positive social and economic changes within target households and communities, particularly in relation to livelihood support measures (orchard development, vocational trainings)?
• · What broader social effects, if any, have resulted from the project’s livelihood and income generation interventions, including changes in household welfare, community cooperation, resource use practices, or local perceptions of livelihood opportunities?
• · What are the intended and unintended consequences as a result of the project activities?
• · Are there any significant changes in the context as a result of the project intervention?

Sustainability

• · What signs and mechanisms are in place to indicate that the benefits generated by the Programme will continue after external support ends?
• · To what extent are women-led income generation activities introduced through the project functioning effectively and generating sustainable economic benefits for participants?
• · What evidence exists that women beneficiaries are likely to continue and expand the income generation activities after project completion, and what factors may support or constrain their sustainability?
• · What are the key factors/areas that will require additional support/attention to improve sustainability and replication potential?

Coherence

• · How well did the Programme complement other interventions in the area, including those by local government, other NGOs, and UN agencies?
• · To what extent can the project liaise with successful similar initiatives?

Cross-Cutting / Humanitarian Principles / Additional Evaluation Themes

• · To what extent were impartiality and neutrality achieved? Which challenges in this respect were addressed and how? How did the project deal with outside attempts to exert influence on the project?
• · How did the project deal with security concerns?
• · How was access to marginalized groups ascertained, especially of women?
• · To what extent did cultural norms have an influence on the project?

4. Timeframe

The estimated level of efforts is 25 – 30 consultancy days and should be carried out between May and June 2026.

5. Deliverables

The following outputs are expected by the end of the consultancy;

1. Inception Report detailing consultancy work-plan and proposed processes

2. Draft evaluation report

3. Data and analysis sheets

4. Final endorsed report incorporating comments from Humedica headquarters and PMS. The final report must include, but not necessarily be limited to up to 25 pages and have elements outlined in the quality criteria for evaluation reports.  The report however can have several annexes (as required by the Consultant or the Consulting Team)

5. Provide a Final report Soft PDF copy (in English).

6. Methodology  

The proposed methodology for the endline/final evaluation will combine qualitative and quantitative data collection and evaluation techniques. The methodology will be developed by the consultant, as well as all relevant tools and presented in the inception report. The data collection should include the use of a number of approaches to gain a deeper understanding of the outcomes of the project, including:

• · Desk-base review (all relevant documents, including project statistics, project documents, progress reports as well as publicly available relevant documents.)
• · Survey (In-depth Interviews)
• · Focus Group Discussions
• · Key Informant Interviews

7. Selection Criteria/Desired Competencies, Technical Background, and Experience  

The Evaluator shall have the following expertise and qualifications:

• · At least a Master’s degree in Social Sciences/Management Sciences including Public Policy, International Development, Development Economics/Planning, Economics, International Relations/Diplomacy, or any other relevant field.
• · Demonstrated expertise, knowledge, and experience in monitoring and evaluation of humanitarian and development programmes/projects (with evidence of at least leading at least 2 external/third-party evaluations).
• · Sound knowledge and practical experience in humanitarian and development planning and implementation, particularly in disaster-prone and rural contexts similar to Kohistan, with demonstrated expertise in disaster risk reduction, climate resilience, livelihood strengthening, environmental management, and community-based development.
• · Experience of project formulation and evaluation and practical experience of end of project evaluation in Kohistan or in similar context.
• · At least 10 years of experience in working in the senior leadership role with international organizations/national organizations.
• · Strong background in qualitative and quantitative evaluation methodologies, including data collection, analysis, and reporting.
• · Past experience in conducting surveys, especially evaluations of German Donors funded projects. (Optional)
• · Excellent written and verbal communication skills in English
• · Past experience of working in the region will be an asset.

Offers will be evaluated on these criteria as well as the quality of the technical offer (proposed methodology, capacity to mobilize qualified personnel in the field, etc.) and the soundness of the financial offer.

8. Evaluation Criteria

The following are the evaluation criteria for the consultant/firm:

• · Note: The applicant must adhere to ethical research/evaluations standards, ensuring:
• · Informed Consent: Participants are fully informed about the purpose of the research and consent to participate.
• · Confidentiality: Personal information of participants is protected.
• · Do No Harm: The research study does not adversely affect participants or communities.

9. Management and Logistics                                                      

The Lead Consultant report to MEAL department who will not have control over the professional work of the evaluators. The Project Manager along with MEAL office will provide technical guidance (guidance to reach targeted villages, stakeholders and key informants) for the evaluation to ensure the independence of the evaluation process. Logistical arrangements will not be provided by the PMS and is included in their (consultants’) budget.

10. Technical Proposal

• · Company profile including the proof of relevant experiences
• · Up to date CV of the lead consultant/evaluator and team (showing education and expertise).
• · Technical proposition detailing proposed methodology and resources needed.
• · An example of a report from similar work which demonstrates evidence of the skills and experience required and a list of past evaluation produced by the lead consultant/evaluator.

11. Financial Proposal

• · Proposed financial offer with a complete breakdown of activities.
• · The financial proposal must be submitted in PKR inclusive of all applicable taxes.
• · A list of all expenses expected to be incurred by the consultant including a daily rate.
• · The Consultant/Firm must be legally registered with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).

12. Payment Terms

All payments will be made through banking channels (cross-cheque). The disbursement schedule, including the amount and timeline, will be outlined in the agreement. Payments will be subject to the successful completion of agreed-upon deliverables and compliance with contractual obligations and submission of final report and database. Any applicable taxes or deductions will be as per prevailing government regulations.

13. How to Apply

Interested, qualified and experienced person, group of persons or firms must submit an Expression of Interest dossier by 1^st June 2026 till 5:00 pm, in a sealed envelope, outlining availability in line with the approximate timeline. The cover letter should be addressed to:

Pak Mission Society (PMS), Operations department, House no 333, Street no 29, G-14/4 Islamabad.

Online Submission (Compulsory): Also send a scanned digital file of technical proposal only in the form of an email* sent to the dedicated email address: [email protected] 

The expression of interest should contain: (a) a technical offer and (b) a financial offer.